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Thursday, January 25, 2007

Fog of War





Today, as I read the news when I should have actually written my legal memo on 4th Amendment, I realized that I was wrong! Ok, I confess to everyone I was wrong! Hezbollah did win the battle with Israel. I used to argue that Hezbollah did not win the war and neither did Israel. I used to say that as a result of this war, only people died with no one actually winning anything. However, as we look at Lebanon today, Hezbollah did win. Let me accept another thing: Iran is winning and the U.S. is losing! That's it, I give up, I was really really wrong.


Today, as we glance at Lebanon, I realized that Hezbollah and Iran came out victorious in the battle against the West.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/01/25/lebanon.protests/index.html

Today, we have Lebanon in edge of a deadly civil war and guess who is going to benefit from it? YES, HIZBOLLAH AND IRAN. This is a perfect example of Iran's quest for destroying every chance of any nation in the region to achieve democracy. How do they implement their plan? Very simply, through religion and sectarian differences. They used to try to do the same thing through uniting Muslims against Israel, now they are even going as far as divining societies through different sects of the same religion. They are uniting Muslims against Muslims. Wow, some Islamic Republic they are! I wonder how would the Prophet feel if he was alive today!

Hezbollah came out of that battle stronger than ever. Even though Lebanon was destroyed, but Hezbollah benefited from this destruction. They used this new support to gain control in Lebanon. Now Iran with Syria are assisting Hezbollah in order to gain more power in Lebanon's government. Iran and Syria both know that would only lead to civil war. That is exactly what they want. A civil war would destroy this new weak democracy backed by the U.S. and this would role back the U.S influence in the region. Iran simply doesn't want any democracy in the region because it would destabilize Iran's government. Iran's government is already struggling to resist the internal democratic forces such as student groups. A flourishing democracy such as Iraq and Lebanon in the region would just make the matter ten times worst. Now, Iran is in the quest to destroy democracy where ever they can find it through sectarian violence. They are going to point out to Iranian citizens that U.S backed democracy would only lead to war and destruction. U.S is losing this battle, especially in Iraq and it is too late to do anything.


In the mist of all these, who is dying and paying the price? Countries such as Lebanon and Iraq. Today, I realized Hezbollah really won the battle with Israel because now they can utilize that self-proclaimed victory over Israel to destroy any opposition in Lebanon. They are claiming that they are defender of Lebanon and as they need to represented in the government. The question is: how is that possible when they have ties to Iran and Syria? Hezbollah wants to be represented in the government while they are taking orders from Iran. Is that really possible? Now they are going for the real victory by taking over the government or just dragging Lebanon into a Civil War. The civil war would be enough for Hezbollah because that is what Iran wants. It does not really matter whether Hezbollah is present in the ruling government of Lebanon, as long as they drag Lebanon into a civil war, mission is accomplished. Iran and Hezbollah are already winners. They do not need to worry about anything.

Let me correct myself one more time: Israel did not Lose, Lebanon and people of Lebanon lost!

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

Israel will survive because her enemies are too divided to unite and defeat her.

The Sunnis and Shi'a of the Middle East are too busy killing each other than getting together and fighing Israel.

Anonymous said...

I love what you wrote..You're a great writer..**hint hint** for your future career.

Ben Kahen said...

That's not the point!

The point is Israel will be dragged into this war! If Lebanon would have continued with this democracy, maybe one day we could have signed a peace treaty with them. Now, the only thing that is going to unite them is war against Israel. Hizbollah will do anything to drag Israel into this war and then unite all the Lebanese against Israel with Hizbollah being the leader.

Plus, peace and prosperity will bring the end of Hizbollah. Hizbollah could only live under war, destruction, and poverty. Peace is something Hizbollah cannot tolerate and definitly Iran doesn't want in the region. Therefore, Peace in Lebanon is in Israel's best interest and also the whole region.

Anonymous said...

This was a great topic you have discussed. I loved every word of it! Continue to educate.

Nahal said...

Hizbollah in Lebanon is bad for Israel whether they are working together or not. But I wouldn't give up on Lebanon and given Israel's success rate I would be more positive.

Anonymous said...

the was lost, its true. but soon civil war is coming in Lebanon, and it will be an opportunity to destroy hezbollah.

Anonymous said...

i disagree with you when you say iran is trying to destroy democracy everywhere. iran's probably involved in iraq but if it is, it isn't because iraq's a democracy. it is because it wants the US to have its hands too full so that US can't attack iran. many iranians feared ever since US invaded afghanistan that iraq would be next and iran would be after. also read this article:

Washington 'snubbed Iran offer'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6274147.stm

it makes it fairly clear why Iran would want to keep US busy in Iraq.

Ben Kahen said...

What about Lebanon? What about Gaza?
You don't think Iran is involved? How many times do you hear reports about Iran being involved or pay money to Hamas or Hizbollah to conduct acts that are very hurtful to these weak democracies?

Iran knows that if Iraq becomes a working democracy, and Iraq has the potential to become a flourish democracy, it is the end of Iran's rule! Iranian people are already disgusted with this government and imagin a neighboring democracy that is actually using the oil money to rebuild the country, what a devestating effect it would have on Iran's society?

Mullahs of Iran knows it and this whole thing about Iran assisting the U.S. in Iraq is a way of blackmailing and it is another way of decieving the world. Just like the way they decieve their own population about the good they do around the globe, now they are trying to decieve the world community. Europe doesn't fall for it anymore, neither the U.S.A. It is blackmail in a sense that they are asking for a promise of no attack or assistance to students groups in Iran, in return for stability in Iraq. At the same time, they want the U.S not to make a big deal when they oppres and kill their own political prisoners.

Iran's government is a very decieving government. They have decieved their own population for 27 years with all sorts of claims and promises. None of these promises were fullfiled. Now, this whole decieving strategy is comming to play on the world stage.

Anonymous said...

Lebanon and Gaza are right beside Israel. Iran supports groups that oppose Israel (and is said to have founded Hezbollah) in order to have a way of retaliating against Israel if its nuclear facilities are bombed. i'm not a supporter of the iranian government but they're doing what they can to protect iran from an invasion. you talk about iran wanting to destroy democracies like their a bunch of morons. how much effect do you seriously think a democracy in lebanon is gonna have on iran? not much. is iran doing anything to democracies in europe? your hatred of iran is similar to the hatred of israel that some of my iranian friends have. you people are both decieved. and unfortunately, sooner or later, the two countries will go to war probably and kill each other. what's interesting to me is that you, as a persian, seem to feel nothing towards other persians in iran and you'd probably support military action against them right now.

Ben Kahen said...

The thing is I don't hate Iranian! I hate Iranian government because of my previous experience with such government.

At the same time, Iranian government is not trying to prevent an invasion, they are trying to make sure they (Mullah) stay in power. The U.S. won't attack Iran if Iran be a good boy in the region and stop spreading hatred.

Since the 80s, Iran's constant mission has been trying to export their revolution to countries, such as Oman, Yaman, Iraq, and many other goverenment. At the same time, Iran loves to have enemies, because it would keep the nation united. That means the popultion are not going or cannot ask for a bettr way of living.

Iran has always had a very destructive foreign policy; they have always supported groups or Islamic movement that were in direct opposition to democratic factors. They are trying ot send the message of Islam or Islamic rule and trying to create this Islamic Empire in the region.

And now, they are worried because they might be invaded, why would U.S invade Iran if they just be a good boy in the region and mind their own business? The reason is simple, because they have other plans for the region!

I am not wishing for a war in the region don't get me wrong. I am calling for a wake up call to Iranian population that they need to get up and change this govnerment fast! It won't happen unless another revolution take place.

Anonymous said...

while i agree with you that iran's government has done its share of bad things, i want point out that these actions, such as supporting other political groups, do not justify a military invasion of Iran.
first of all, iran offered to give up support for these groups (hezbollah and hamas) and be more transparent about its nuclear program in a letter to washington but these were rejected.
Washington 'snubbed Iran offer'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6274147.stm

i really dislike the choice of words "good boy." but anyway iran tried resolving its conflict with US diplomatically. however, US rejected.

this lead many to believe that US had other reasons to invade iran. one theory was to gain control over europe's oil supply. another theory was that by destroying iran's infrastructure and leaving iran in debt, iran's economy would be even more crippled forcing iran to sell off its oil. we can also see how north korea back then was working on nukes but US didn't care much and also how US invaded iraq based on false evidence. these actions supported the theories i mentioned earlier.

when you said "iran has other plans for the region," it's interesting to me because my iranian friends say the same thing about israel. i believe israel has the right to exist. but i think for its own benefit, israel should try to follow UN resolutions more. this will boost israel's image and lessen its opposition. after all, if the people in countries around israel supported it, groups like hezbollah wouldn't exist. israel would gain more in the long run i think.

by the way, israel's government supported hamas itself in the 80's.

Ben Kahen said...

Ayatolah Ruholah Khomeini said:

"our goal is to raise a green flag of Islam and our revolution on top of eveyr Mosque, Church, and Temple in the Middl East!

About Iran's assistance: come on, how many times Iran has promised stuff and he didn't follow? They do it every day to their own people? Promises of more freedome, better standard of living?! Do you honestly think that Iran have a drip of crediblity!

Iran wants to rule! Iran wants to stay in power in Iran. When I say Iran, I am talking about Iranian government of Iranian people! G-d knows Iranian struggle for democracy is one of the most honorable struggles of our centuries!

Iranian government want a secure promise from the United States that they would stay in power!

That means no more talk of democracy in the region!

Anonymous said...

US couldn't care less about a democracy in Iran. they're after their own interests and when they toppled Mossadeqh who was working for democracy in Iran, they proved it.

i think you're a very biased person and you're very americanized. i represented you with facts but you simply brush them aside and quote someone who died 18 years ago and just say iran wants to rule the region.

i have to say while i've seen maps of "greater israel" i've never seen any iranian draw up a similar map for iran and claim we deserve all of it. iran has not invaded another country for 200 years. if iran's influence has grown, it is because of the injustice that has been done to some of the people in the region. anyhow, good chatting.

Ben Kahen said...

Ok I have to attack your point one by one:

The first thing about Khomeini’s words is that currently, Ahamadineja and Ali Khameneyee both are following in the food steps of Emam Khomeni. They use the same language and utilize the same tactics. At the same time, millions of dollars of oil money is being spent on militant or terrorist groups in the Middle East. Iran’s action in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and many many other countries is a proof of such plan.

About the great Israel plan:
This plan existed one day and yes it died. It died in 1979 when Israel pulled out of Egypt, it died when Israel pulled out of Lebanon 2000, it died when Israel pulled out Gaza in 2005. Israelis don’t support and it is not in Israel’s self-best interest. At the same time, why do you keep pointing at Israel when we’re talking about Israel.

About U.S not wanting Democracy:

Back in Mosadeq time, democracy in the region was not in the U.S interest. It was at the height of the Cold War and you know very well that Toodeh (communist) party was very powerful in Iran. U.S. did not want any democracy because they thought that communist would take over. Pro-soviet groups were also very powerful in Iran with influence from north supporting them.

However, after 9/11 everything changed! The rule of the game changed! U.S realized that the region needs to democratize in order to fight the fundamentalists. Why? Simple: the region needs to provide a better standard of living for its population. In order to have a better standard of living, people need to make more money, in order to make more money, you need better jobs, to make better jobs you need to have market economy, in order to have a flourishing market economy, you need to you have democracy in order to invite foreign investment. You see, the U.S realized the problem of the U.S is lack of democracy and it became the U.S. plan for the Middle East; NO THERE IS NO CONSPIRACY INVOLVED HERE! It is the U.S. interest that is involved.

U.S utilized the same plan after WWII in Japan and Germany and it took care of the problem of violent or aggressive tactics of thee government. It worked!! But whether it will work for the Middle East is another story and another set of argument which is irrelevant to our issue at hand.

You see: you were right about U.S following its own self-interest. However, you don’t realize that we can benefit from such interest too. You argue that because it is in U.S interest, then it is bad for us! That’s wrong! Using Israel as an example, Israel realized U.S. best interest is being served by U.S supporting Israel, did they say NO, we don’t want it? NO, they welcomed it!

Another thing is, as much as I welcome your opinion and everything and I enjoy arguing w/ you, please do not carry on a personal attack! Argue with me as much as you want and I welcome it!

Anonymous said...

alright

well believe or not, iranians have gained more freedom since the early days of the revolution. as stupid as ahmadinejad may be, he's no khomeini. same with khamenei. also there has been critism of how he has spent money on hamas as well as his tone and the holocaust conference he organized. in fact his supporters lost an election fairly recently.

i think israel uses ahmadinejad's idiocy as a gift and over plays it by calling iran "genocidal," in order to serve its interest when in reality not even ahmadinejad said anything like that. i think regardless of the regime in iran, israel would not want iran to have a nuclear program because it would be a threat to it. thanks to ahmadinejad, its now way easier for israel to rally people to support military action against iran. by the way, iran's supreme leader, khamenei, stated that iran had no intention to attack israel.

Also which of iran's actions are you referring to when pointing out oman, yemen and saudi arabia.

About Mossadegh, he was NOT a communist. he was toppled because he nationalized oil. some believe that britain purposefully provided false intelligence to US telling them he was. but i have a hard time believing that because i think US could itself have done some research and easily have found out he wasn't.

as for 9/11, that had nothing to do with iran. US wanted regime change in iran long before that (ie, by supporting saddam). 9/11 served as an excuse for them. also i never opposed democracy for iran and i never said anything even close to if americans say something it must be bad. you pointed out how the economy must be developed. don't u think military action would be against that? the only benefit bringing democracy to iran would have to washington is that iran's new government would not have such harsh opposition towards it. but by bombing iranian people and ruining their infrastructure, US would actually be setting up the stage for even more opposition to it. i mean it still hasn't got iraq back upto to its prestage of war. democracy must come but from within iran. it can't be brought by an outside power through military means specially for a country like iran.

iran's actions are not as simple as they "want to rule." anyhow i mentioned israel, because i think the israeli government holds blame too.

Ben Kahen said...

I am not calling full blown invasion of Iran with bombing Iranian cities. However, I do believe in case Iran doesn't stop with the nuclear program, Israel should hit its nuclera program!

At the same time, democracy cannot be imported by an outside force! That's why U.S. cannot throw in a democracy in Iraq and Iran and expect it to work! People of Iran are smart enough to know what's good for them. I don't think U.S. should try invade Iran the way they did with Iraq. However, I do believe U.S. should cut the hands of Iranian influence in Iraq.

About Oman and Yemen, back in 90s there were many occasions that Iranian agents and terrorists were arrrested trying to compose an uprising. There were also some terorist attacks there, but it never got off the ground cuz the U.S didn't allow it!

Saudi Arabia there are many many occasions, but the best example is bombing of the American Marines in 90s;

The thing is Iran's government is not a sane government! They are exteremely ruthless and they have no value what so ever! They would sell out their own mothers and siter if they could!

At least if Israel is horrible and ruthless and racist, she stands up for her people! Is Iran standing for any of its citizen? or actually murdering them in Evin? jailing their sutdents?

Iran and Israel by no means should be compared together because Israel has problem with an outside world! Iran has problem with outside world and inside! These are by the way my personal view!

Anonymous said...

the thing is though israel can't just bomb iran's nuclear facilities and expect nothing. it will certainly cause some kind of retaliation and it can easily turn into an all out war. i really don't think it'll be like the time israel bombed iraq's nuclear facility.

i personally dont think iran will ever nuke israel. i also dont think iran's government are as insane as you mention. they're cruel in a lot of things they do but i wouldn't say they're insane. they have reasons why they do what they do. iran's last president was a pretty good guy i think. the president before that was alright too. there are some guys in the government that are simply retarded but i dont think any of them would nuke israel just out of nowhere.

Ben Kahen said...

The question is not whether Iran would nuke Israel or not! Iran is not stupid enough to do that becuse United States would reduce Iran into a nuclear desert within minutes!

Howeve, the problem is the problem of this "Islamic Bomb"! Pakistan has the Nuke, and look how they are sharing the technology! G-d forbid for a day that Iran gets a nuke! It is just something unacceptable and Iran is a messy country, the techology or the bomb is never safe!

Another issue is how do we know that Iran doesn't provide terrorist groups with such bomb! They don't have to fly a missle to Israel, or another country, they could just give it or sell it to terrorist groups! So far, Iran has provided Lebanon with Biological weapons and up to date arsenal, how do we know they wont' give it Terrorist!

You see, it is unacceptable because Iran's government is very unpredictable and yes there are a lot of crazies! BABA for g-d's sake, they built this road that cost millions of dollars from this well in some place to Tehran to Mashhad w/ railroads and traine stations that when Emam Mahdi shows up, he could get in a car or a train and come very fast?

You are telling me this government is not insane to waste such resource for points like this?

Iran getting a nuke is simply unacceptable to everyone! Europeans don't want it, Gulf Nations don't want it, Israel deplores it, and the U.S definitly don't want a nuke power in the region!

See, the world is against it! I wouldn't be supprised that if Arabs assist Israle in blowing those off!

Anonymous said...

yes, of course arabs are against it. iran would become too powerful compared to them with nukes. its not in their interest. same with other countries.

but you agree that iran wouldn't nuke israel. i dont think it would give them to terrorists either. i mean pakistan is pretty messed up too but we have yet to hear of any terrorist groups that have got nukes from it. in the past century iran has suffered much from military aggression against by various countries. in order for this country to develope, it needs stability. nukes would give it protection against military aggression, making it possible to progress. i support its nuclear program. i guess thats where me and you differ.

also i really don't see anything crazy about building a railroad from tehran to mashad. so what muslims think imam mahdi is coming. jews have their messiah too. besides, how do you know they really built it for imam mahdi? dont you think this railroad serves other purposes as well? i mean seriously, don't u think that people too actually use this train to travel?

Ben Kahen said...

Well, the thing is Iran will use this Nuke as a way to blackmail the world community by giving it to the terrorist groups and yes they will do it! They have never held back and they never will!

There are a lot of crazies in Iran; it's not about Imam Mahdi or their believes, it is about wasting so much resourches to build such road and rail road where there are villigaes in Iran who still don't have clean water or electericity!

Anonymous said...

Ben, i have to say i'm starting to get tired of arguing. again you make statements out of bias without facts or anything to support them. you just repeat what the media says. in fact you don't even bother changing the words. Iran having nukes is "unacceptable" to you. you speak as though you're the president of the US.

I already addressed your point about the railroad. they built a railroad so people can travel. there's nothing wrong with spending money on a railroad. and if you knew anything about iran's government, you'd know that they've spent a lot of resources getting electricity, gas and clean water to villages in iran. that's like the one thing they don't deserve to be critisized for.

israel went to war with hezbollah. after hezbollah fired a few thousand missiles, it caused 27 or so casualties. iran could have easily armed them with much more accurate and dangerous weapons. but it didn't. now you make a claim that iran would give them nukes?

and all of these discussions we're having are based on assumptions that the shitty rockets hezbollah has, did come from iran. just the other day, fatah said it arrested 7 iranians in a university in palestine and an 8th "blew himself up." do you believe that? is it just a coincidence that as soon as israel pays fatah 100 million dollars, a bunch of iranians all of a sudden show up in palestine? at the same time that bush steps up his rhetoric?

i have to say, as much as i think israel should be, i am kind of happy that it lost the war in lebanon. the israeli government has got into the habbit of always settling things with pure force and devastating all the people that live outside israel. and what's even sadder is that this is supported by the people, the same way the people of america support war. it saddens me that when considering military action against iran, israelis only worry about the life of the 20,000 jews in iran and not the life of all the other 70 million that are not jewish... and these are the words of the persian jews there.

agha Arash, lets end our debate here. i got frustrated so my tone is bad in this post. after you respond to this one, i'd like to post our debate on my group on facebook. that ok with you?

Ben Kahen said...

ohh yeah! I understand, most of the time i get carried away too! lol
I am going to post somethign else! I don't want to lose your debate on here either!

thank you

Anonymous said...

The civil war is of great benefit to us. We want it in Lebanon cuz it will weaken our enemies. We also want it in the Palestinian territories, which is why we are arming Abu Mazen and Fatah. We are provoking both civil wars. What better way to destroy our enemies than get them to destroy each other!!!

Anonymous said...

That other anonymous isn't me. anyhow can you give me a response sooner or later cause i wanna post this

Anonymous said...

fadel.benj i see u guys discussing methods to provoke a civil war in lebanon i dont think that is queit peaceful as i told u before me as a lebanese trying har to accomplish democracy in mmy country to get rid of hizbollah and then see hizbollahs enemy hoping war ignites in lebanon i dont think that is queit how it works thats the main reason many of the ppl in lebanon support hizbollah cause they are afraid sorry for this word benj "zinoist" acts that might occur after the disarming of hizbollah..if u guys show a peaceful side towards the lebanese ppl u will live peacefully for ever come on it was clear that we didnt want to fight in the war the army actually gave u tea!!!! We want peace more than u guys but not as long as the threat is there i prefer supporting hizbollah that being distoyed the second day they are disarmed
P.S i HATE hizbollah very nice writting benj

Ben Kahen said...

Fadel:

thank you for the kind word,

No, trust me, trust me, trust me, Civil war is the last thing I want or for the most part majority of Israelis want, if you see, Israel is pretty worried about the situation in Lebanon.

I told you, civil war in lebanon does not benefit anybody but Iran!

Anonymous said...

did you know iran used to have a democracy... it was toppled in 1953.

did you also know that it was the iranians who freed the jews 2500 years ago in babylon?

i'm not trying to make an argument here, but let's just keep a level head... it's not as though the entire region has never seen any democracy.

iranians are a good people, we will figure out our country in our own time, as we have so many times in our past :)