Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Tough Times for Hezbollah
I saw this article and the first thing that popped out in my mind was wow! Hezbollah is trying to amend relations with Lebanese in order to establish itself as a legitimate force in the region elected by the people for the people. Hezbollah is trying act affectionate toward Lebanese Army simply to buy their love due to the outcome of the tribunal that will be released soon. Funniest part is that in this article, Nasrallah is thanking Lebanese Army for their effort to remove the camera. They are alleging the Cameras are from Israel with absolutely no proof. It is no coincidence that these Cameras were discovered at this time and Hezbollah asks Lebanese Army to remove them and then thank them.
Basically, Hezbollah is trying to legitimize itself even further in advance given possibility of being found guilty of killing Hariri. If the tribunal holds Hezbollah responsible for killing of Hariri, it would reaffirm the claim that Hezbollah is nothing but the tools of regional powers such as Iran and Syria. The outcome of this tribunal will simply affirm Israel’s claim that Hezbollah is not looking after Lebanon’s best interest, rather they would pursue national interest of foreign governments and put it even ahead of Lebanon’s national interests. It would also create further rift between regional religions within Lebanon showing that the Shias are simply not after the best interest of Lebanon, rather they are looking to gain power and advance their religion in the country.
Given the situation in Lebanon and how tense it is there, Hezbollah is also facing a new problem. Hezbollah must go through massive budget cuts. The reason is because Iran has been hit hard with sanctions and they can no longer fund terrorist activities of their illegitimate children in the region. This article (click Here for the Article) argues that Iran has cut Hezbollah’s budget by at least 40%. Here is even crazier part: Iran annually funds Hezbollah with at least one billion dollars. You look at Iran and the staggering poverty, up to 20% prostitution rate, and many other economical problems, you would have to ask yourself: how crazy is this Iranian government to waste Iranian money like that just for religious reasons and is it sane to allow these crazies acquire a nuclear capability?! So now Hezbollah has to go through massive budget cuts for their terrorist activities and of course they can no longer bride their supporters in southern part of Lebanon as much as before, so they will surely come across problems dealing with the people.
With their legitimacy under question, Hezbollah keeps threatening the region and the international community that they would not hand over anybody to the tribunal. Of course, it is crucial for them to never accept responsibility. In groups like these, taking accountability is never an option. They will always lie to their citizens and keep them in dark. You could see the same thing in Palestinian governments, terrorist groups, Iranian government, and many other Arab and Muslim countries. For them taking responsibility for their action is like kiss of death. So they will fight if they have to and they might even conduct a violent takeover in Lebanon if they have to, but they will not delegitimize themselves and take accountability for their acts. At the same time, their budget is being cut.
So things are not looking good for Hezbollah in Lebanon now. That’s why we’re seeing Hezbollah first trying to legitimize its existence through threat of Israel and demonizing and exaggerating threat of Israel in the region. With that, they are also trying to make friends with Lebanese through using Lebanese Army and praising them for their effort to show that they are a nationalistic force in the country and they are faithful to the best interest of Lebanon. So they are killing two birds with a stone. It will be interesting what the future will bring.